Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy Lazy Trading ES +44.1% Cumul. Return since Sep 25, 2024 Hypothetical

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SmartFutures
(132148218)

Created by: VIXPro VIXPro
Started: 11/2020
Futures
Last trade: 9 days ago
Trading style: Futures Short Term

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $195.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Short Term
Category: Equity

Short Term

Makes short-term trades or bases analysis on short-term market movements.
29.0%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(25.9%)
Max Drawdown
392
Num Trades
65.8%
Win Trades
2.2 : 1
Profit Factor
65.3%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020                                                                      +6.1%+2.0%+8.2%
2021+10.1%+5.3%+10.3%(3.5%)+10.7%+3.6%+2.6%+0.1%(1.7%)+1.8%(1.7%)+7.5%+53.5%
2022(7.8%)(1.4%)+8.6%(0.8%)(2.1%)(3.6%)+12.8%(2.3%)+1.3%+12.9%+8.3%+3.0%+30.0%
2023+17.2%+2.9%+2.0%+1.8%+0.1%+1.1%+0.5%(1.7%)(4%)(2.6%)+1.1%+0.7%+19.1%
2024+2.6%(0.4%)(1.1%)+1.0%+0.9%+2.4%(0.6%)(4.5%)+7.7%(0.7%)+1.7%      +8.8%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 438 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 338 days ago.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/11/24 16:47 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 6030.75 11/11 19:06 6027.75 0%
Trade id #150060491
Max drawdown($1)
Time11/11/24 16:51
Quant open1
Worst price6031.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $14
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/10/24 18:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 6032.50 11/11 16:47 6030.75 0.14%
Trade id #150050354
Max drawdown($95)
Time11/11/24 13:22
Quant open1
Worst price6013.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
 ($10)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
11/6/24 16:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 5973.42 11/8 16:00 6006.08 0.97%
Trade id #150016172
Max drawdown($670)
Time11/8/24 14:40
Quant open2
Worst price6040.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.97%
 ($493)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.82
10/14/24 16:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 12 5833.81 11/5 16:18 5842.23 2.72%
Trade id #149656669
Max drawdown($1,876)
Time11/4/24 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price5740.00
Drawdown as % of equity-2.72%
 $494
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $11.28
10/11/24 16:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5859.25 10/13 18:00 5856.75 0%
Trade id #149642515
Max drawdown($1)
Time10/11/24 16:03
Quant open1
Worst price5859.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $12
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
10/10/24 16:02 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5828.50 10/11 16:00 5844.75 0.09%
Trade id #149632580
Max drawdown($62)
Time10/11/24 4:51
Quant open1
Worst price5816.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $161
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/9/24 8:55 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5796.75 10/9 16:03 5836.50 0.36%
Trade id #149615158
Max drawdown($248)
Time10/9/24 15:52
Quant open1
Worst price5846.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.36%
 ($200)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
10/4/24 7:34 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5757.50 10/9 8:55 5797.00 0.47%
Trade id #149576388
Max drawdown($322)
Time10/8/24 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price5725.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.47%
 $393
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/2/24 16:50 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5772.00 10/4 7:34 5766.25 0.01%
Trade id #149564813
Max drawdown($3)
Time10/2/24 18:09
Quant open1
Worst price5772.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $28
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
10/1/24 16:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5760.00 10/2 16:50 5765.88 0.26%
Trade id #149554620
Max drawdown($177)
Time10/2/24 9:45
Quant open1
Worst price5724.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
 $57
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
9/30/24 4:32 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5785.75 9/30 16:00 5815.50 0.43%
Trade id #149538684
Max drawdown($295)
Time9/30/24 14:24
Quant open2
Worst price5756.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.43%
 $296
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
9/22/24 18:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 5772.67 9/23 18:00 5775.00 0.16%
Trade id #149479169
Max drawdown($110)
Time9/23/24 10:23
Quant open1
Worst price5784.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.16%
 ($38)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.82
9/19/24 16:07 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5775.25 9/22 18:00 5762.50 0.61%
Trade id #149462206
Max drawdown($420)
Time9/20/24 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price5733.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
 ($130)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
9/18/24 16:02 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5680.00 9/18 18:00 5693.25 n/a $65
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/17/24 16:17 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5704.75 9/18 16:01 5681.00 0.37%
Trade id #149423434
Max drawdown($257)
Time9/18/24 14:01
Quant open1
Worst price5756.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.37%
 $118
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/17/24 16:00 @MESZ4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5702.25 9/17 16:08 5701.75 0.01%
Trade id #149423360
Max drawdown($5)
Time9/17/24 16:03
Quant open1
Worst price5701.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/13/24 16:04 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 5627.00 9/17 2:48 5631.25 0.14%
Trade id #149391338
Max drawdown($100)
Time9/13/24 16:26
Quant open4
Worst price5632.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
 ($89)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.76
9/9/24 18:00 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5488.75 9/11 16:17 5559.25 1.12%
Trade id #149329975
Max drawdown($767)
Time9/11/24 10:47
Quant open2
Worst price5412.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.12%
 $703
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
9/9/24 16:39 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5488.50 9/9 18:00 5488.75 0.01%
Trade id #149329064
Max drawdown($7)
Time9/9/24 18:00
Quant open1
Worst price5490.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($2)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/8/24 18:20 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5413.50 9/9 16:00 5479.00 0.06%
Trade id #149318570
Max drawdown($41)
Time9/9/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price5405.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 $327
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/4/24 19:48 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 5518.00 9/8 18:20 5413.25 0.29%
Trade id #149256216
Max drawdown($196)
Time9/5/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price5557.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
 $523
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/3/24 16:07 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5544.75 9/4 19:48 5518.00 0.29%
Trade id #149239493
Max drawdown($193)
Time9/4/24 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price5506.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
 ($135)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
8/26/24 18:00 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 8 5648.19 9/3 16:07 5555.34 0.85%
Trade id #149059684
Max drawdown($541)
Time9/3/24 3:43
Quant open6
Worst price5666.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.85%
 $3,706
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.52
8/22/24 18:02 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 5626.25 8/26 16:04 5648.00 0.94%
Trade id #149013326
Max drawdown($607)
Time8/23/24 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price5661.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
 ($439)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.76
8/22/24 16:01 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5593.75 8/22 16:17 5598.50 n/a $23
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
8/19/24 18:01 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 5636.42 8/22 16:01 5625.33 0.25%
Trade id #148961826
Max drawdown($162)
Time8/22/24 9:45
Quant open1
Worst price5669.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
 $163
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.82
8/19/24 16:22 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 5625.50 8/19 18:01 5630.00 0%
Trade id #148960850
Max drawdown($2)
Time8/19/24 16:59
Quant open1
Worst price5625.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $22
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
8/16/24 16:18 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 5581.56 8/19 16:21 5625.75 1.55%
Trade id #148941962
Max drawdown($1,003)
Time8/19/24 16:00
Quant open4
Worst price5631.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.55%
 ($888)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.76
8/15/24 16:17 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 5564.25 8/16 16:00 5577.75 0.42%
Trade id #148932433
Max drawdown($277)
Time8/16/24 8:51
Quant open2
Worst price5536.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.42%
 $133
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
8/14/24 16:17 @MESU4 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 5503.00 8/15 16:17 5566.25 1.57%
Trade id #148920300
Max drawdown($1,027)
Time8/15/24 15:35
Quant open3
Worst price5571.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.57%
 ($952)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.82
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    11/9/2020
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $70,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    1473.16
  • Age
    49 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    392
  • # Profitable
    258
  • % Profitable
    65.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    3.5 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    25.87%
  • drawdown period
    Jan 20, 2022 - Feb 24, 2022
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    29.0%
  • Avg win
    $403.15
  • Avg loss
    $347.31
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $82,092
  • Margin Used
    $2,920
  • Buying Power
    $79,553
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    2.23:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.12
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.83
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.835
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    112.30%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.37420
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    67.54%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    29.0%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    0.95%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.01%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.290%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    0.05%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    34.5%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    32.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    6.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    1.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    0.07%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    382
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    892
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    984
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    792
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $347
  • Avg Win
    $405
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $46,539.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    49
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $104,397.000
  • # Winners
    258
  • Num Months Winners
    32
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    134
  • % Winners
    65.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    5088.78
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    84.81
  • Avg Trade Length
    3.5 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.36
  • Daily leverage (max)
    19.57
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.06
  • Beta
    0.43
  • Treynor Index
    0.16
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.24
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    5.224
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.848
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -2.833
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.195
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.31899
  • SD
    0.19821
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.60936
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.58352
  • df
    47.00000
  • t
    3.21872
  • p
    0.00117
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.56936
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.63395
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.55258
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.61446
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.27700
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.66531
  • Upside part of mean
    0.42253
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.10354
  • Upside SD
    0.20344
  • Downside SD
    0.07458
  • N nonnegative terms
    33.00000
  • N negative terms
    15.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    48.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14033
  • Mean of criterion
    0.31899
  • SD of predictor
    0.15630
  • SD of criterion
    0.19821
  • Covariance
    0.01183
  • r
    0.38182
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.48420
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.25104
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03429
  • DF error
    46.00000
  • t(b)
    2.80192
  • p(b)
    0.00370
  • t(a)
    2.62296
  • p(a)
    0.00589
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.13635
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.83205
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05839
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.44370
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.65880
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.25104
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.29702
  • SD
    0.18965
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.56612
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.54097
  • df
    47.00000
  • t
    3.13223
  • p
    0.00149
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.52897
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.58816
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.51267
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.56927
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.82414
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.19508
  • Upside part of mean
    0.40350
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.10648
  • Upside SD
    0.19115
  • Downside SD
    0.07767
  • N nonnegative terms
    33.00000
  • N negative terms
    15.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    48.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.12769
  • Mean of criterion
    0.29702
  • SD of predictor
    0.15593
  • SD of criterion
    0.18965
  • Covariance
    0.01160
  • r
    0.39237
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.47723
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.23608
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03109
  • DF error
    46.00000
  • t(b)
    2.89324
  • p(b)
    0.00290
  • t(a)
    2.60444
  • p(a)
    0.00618
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14521
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.80924
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05362
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.41854
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.62238
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.23608
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.06321
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.08421
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01396
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03206
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    48.00000
  • Minimum
    0.89143
  • Quartile 1
    0.99632
  • Median
    1.01863
  • Quartile 3
    1.04597
  • Maximum
    1.19399
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.96604
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00650
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.03035
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.10344
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04965
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.02083
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.89143
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06250
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.17359
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -2.04581
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01979
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02022
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.15036
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.03683
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.06254
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00597
  • Quartile 1
    0.01871
  • Median
    0.02473
  • Quartile 3
    0.04312
  • Maximum
    0.11172
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01079
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02327
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.03794
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.08001
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02441
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11172
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.57019
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.34584
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    3.09565
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    4.32241
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.10666
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.31219
  • SD
    0.17139
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.82152
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.82022
  • df
    1048.00000
  • t
    3.64478
  • p
    0.44406
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.83848
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.80371
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.83761
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.80283
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.91732
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.56185
  • Upside part of mean
    0.91624
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.60404
  • Upside SD
    0.13516
  • Downside SD
    0.10701
  • N nonnegative terms
    574.00000
  • N negative terms
    475.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1049.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.14248
  • Mean of criterion
    0.31219
  • SD of predictor
    0.16460
  • SD of criterion
    0.17139
  • Covariance
    0.01113
  • r
    0.39464
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.41092
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.25400
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02482
  • DF error
    1047.00000
  • t(b)
    13.89760
  • p(b)
    0.25545
  • t(a)
    3.21672
  • p(a)
    0.43712
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.35290
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.46893
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.09892
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.40838
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.75975
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.25365
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.29744
  • SD
    0.17064
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.74307
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.74182
  • df
    1048.00000
  • t
    3.48780
  • p
    0.44644
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.76032
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.72503
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.75947
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.72417
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.72940
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.32619
  • Upside part of mean
    0.90734
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.60991
  • Upside SD
    0.13248
  • Downside SD
    0.10897
  • N nonnegative terms
    574.00000
  • N negative terms
    475.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1049.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.12890
  • Mean of criterion
    0.29744
  • SD of predictor
    0.16471
  • SD of criterion
    0.17064
  • Covariance
    0.01113
  • r
    0.39594
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.41019
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.24456
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02458
  • DF error
    1047.00000
  • t(b)
    13.95170
  • p(b)
    0.25469
  • t(a)
    3.11789
  • p(a)
    0.43903
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.35250
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.46788
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.09065
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.39848
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.72511
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.24456
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01607
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02039
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00482
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01078
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    1049.00000
  • Minimum
    0.93213
  • Quartile 1
    0.99838
  • Median
    1.00030
  • Quartile 3
    1.00363
  • Maximum
    1.10683
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99136
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99946
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00167
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01231
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00525
  • Number outliers low
    70.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06673
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97940
  • Number of outliers high
    92.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08770
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02251
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.67024
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00753
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02577
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.34755
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00754
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01491
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    87.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00104
  • Median
    0.00323
  • Quartile 3
    0.01819
  • Maximum
    0.18880
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00050
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00220
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00782
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05625
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01715
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    11.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.12644
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.08431
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.27631
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.05237
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.08913
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.47557
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.04152
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.08069
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.57194
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.34640
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.83474
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    6.15806
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    16.98740
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.13949
  • SD
    0.11071
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.25996
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.25267
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.89092
  • p
    0.46105
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.51838
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.03357
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.52331
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.02866
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.83058
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.23647
  • Upside part of mean
    0.47523
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.33574
  • Upside SD
    0.08020
  • Downside SD
    0.07620
  • N nonnegative terms
    69.00000
  • N negative terms
    62.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23752
  • Mean of criterion
    0.13949
  • SD of predictor
    0.13565
  • SD of criterion
    0.11071
  • Covariance
    0.00447
  • r
    0.29759
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.24288
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.08180
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01126
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    3.54032
  • p(b)
    0.31339
  • t(a)
    0.54197
  • p(a)
    0.46967
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.10714
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.37861
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.21683
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.38044
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.57434
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.08180
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.13335
  • SD
    0.11110
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.20023
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.19329
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.84869
  • p
    0.46288
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.57771
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.97358
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.58231
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.96889
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.71478
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.07050
  • Upside part of mean
    0.47207
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.33872
  • Upside SD
    0.07918
  • Downside SD
    0.07776
  • N nonnegative terms
    69.00000
  • N negative terms
    62.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.22828
  • Mean of criterion
    0.13335
  • SD of predictor
    0.13583
  • SD of criterion
    0.11110
  • Covariance
    0.00460
  • r
    0.30456
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.24911
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.07648
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01129
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    3.63165
  • p(b)
    0.30915
  • t(a)
    0.50633
  • p(a)
    0.47166
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01600
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.11340
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.38483
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.22237
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.37534
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.53529
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.07648
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01072
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01355
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00273
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00633
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95212
  • Quartile 1
    0.99903
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00181
  • Maximum
    1.03714
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99540
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99952
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00092
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00631
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00278
  • Number outliers low
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05344
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98621
  • Number of outliers high
    12.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.09160
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01260
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.72700
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00408
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01615
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.81551
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00387
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02134
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    14.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00044
  • Quartile 1
    0.00086
  • Median
    0.00126
  • Quartile 3
    0.00637
  • Maximum
    0.07898
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00066
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00098
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00207
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.02565
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00550
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.07143
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.07898
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    1.03571
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02869
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    5.04479
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.06734
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.50%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -396793000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    35
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.13789
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.14265
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.80607
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    5.56075
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    10.52490

Strategy Description

Our discretionary trading strategy focusses primarily on 'E-mini S&P 500 Futures' (ES / MES), which are by far the most liquid Futures on the market. We switch between long and short positions or go back to cash entirely. All trading decisions are discretionary but still rooted in our technical and historical volatility indicators and proprietary trading signals.

Markets are meticulously monitored and under normal circumstances the majority of trades are executed around Market Open and Market Close. Holding times will vary between a couple of minutes up to a couple of days.

Subscribe to this strategy now for $195/month.


Be sure to also check out our other trading strategies on Collective2:

• EliteFutures: Our algorithmic ES/MES Futures trading strategy
collective2.com/details/125237603

• VIXPro Volatility Fund: Our flagship algorithmic volatility trading strategy
collective2.com/details/133141816


-VIXPro-

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2020-11-09
Suggested Minimum Capital
$70,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 1.6%
Rank # 
#12
# Trades
392
# Profitable
258
% Profitable
65.8%
Correlation S&P500
0.374
Sharpe Ratio
1.12
Sortino Ratio
1.83
Beta
0.43
Alpha
0.06
Leverage
1.36 Average
19.57 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.