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ES Predator
(118876437)

Created by: InTheMoneyResearch InTheMoneyResearch
Started: 07/2018
Futures
Last trade: 12 days ago
Trading style: Futures Momentum Financials / Indexes

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $149.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
Financials / Indexes
Category: Equity

Financials / Indexes

Focuses on market indexes or interest rates futures.
103.6%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(22.2%)
Max Drawdown
58
Num Trades
31.0%
Win Trades
1.7 : 1
Profit Factor
53.3%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2018                                          (5.5%)  -  (3.4%)+18.7%+14.1%+30.6%+61.4%
2019+8.6%+7.8%(9.2%)+7.7%(4.1%)+16.5%(4.2%)+22.2%(3.6%)                  +44.4%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 67 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
9/3/19 10:04 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 2893.15 9/3 21:30 2915.50 3.64%
Trade id #125195621
Max drawdown($4,270)
Time9/3/19 21:26
Quant open4
Worst price2914.50
Drawdown as % of equity-3.64%
($4,502)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
8/26/19 6:18 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 2872.38 8/26 7:29 2873.25 0.52%
Trade id #125082764
Max drawdown($625)
Time8/26/19 6:20
Quant open4
Worst price2875.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.52%
($207)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
8/21/19 18:15 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 2934.12 8/22 10:36 2908.75 4.79%
Trade id #125027649
Max drawdown($5,975)
Time8/22/19 0:00
Quant open4
Worst price2904.25
Drawdown as % of equity-4.79%
($5,107)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
8/1/19 10:18 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 2996.25 8/5 18:04 2859.12 3.64%
Trade id #124716476
Max drawdown($3,600)
Time8/1/19 10:18
Quant open4
Worst price3014.25
Drawdown as % of equity-3.64%
$27,393
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
7/23/19 13:43 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3002.00 7/25 12:40 3001.00 1.21%
Trade id #124582301
Max drawdown($1,200)
Time7/23/19 13:43
Quant open4
Worst price2996.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.21%
($232)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
7/22/19 10:45 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 2980.00 7/22 12:58 2988.50 1.71%
Trade id #124564160
Max drawdown($1,700)
Time7/22/19 12:58
Quant open4
Worst price2988.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.71%
($1,732)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
7/18/19 14:19 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 4 2991.75 7/18 18:12 3009.00 3.38%
Trade id #124521184
Max drawdown($3,450)
Time7/18/19 18:12
Quant open4
Worst price3009.00
Drawdown as % of equity-3.38%
($3,482)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
7/11/19 20:54 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 4 3009.25 7/16 12:10 3007.50 1.34%
Trade id #124428620
Max drawdown($1,400)
Time7/11/19 20:54
Quant open4
Worst price3002.25
Drawdown as % of equity-1.34%
($382)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $32.00
6/28/19 9:31 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2941.00 7/8 1:31 2982.75 1.25%
Trade id #124266377
Max drawdown($1,237)
Time6/28/19 9:31
Quant open3
Worst price2932.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.25%
$6,239
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
6/26/19 7:53 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 2934.75 6/28 9:31 2940.00 0.79%
Trade id #124235116
Max drawdown($788)
Time6/28/19 9:31
Quant open3
Worst price2940.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.79%
($812)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
6/16/19 21:39 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2903.75 6/18 3:41 2890.50 1.93%
Trade id #124100869
Max drawdown($1,988)
Time6/18/19 3:41
Quant open0
Worst price2890.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.93%
($2,012)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
6/4/19 6:09 @ESU9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2767.38 6/14 9:54 2873.58 0.96%
Trade id #123926875
Max drawdown($843)
Time6/4/19 7:41
Quant open3
Worst price2761.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.96%
$15,907
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
5/30/19 9:43 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 2796.00 6/4 7:45 2755.17 0.55%
Trade id #123873002
Max drawdown($450)
Time5/30/19 10:37
Quant open-3
Worst price2799.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.55%
$6,101
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
5/16/19 6:09 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2862.50 5/20 4:55 2857.25 1.8%
Trade id #123691446
Max drawdown($1,500)
Time5/17/19 9:30
Quant open3
Worst price2852.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.80%
($812)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
5/10/19 15:25 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2890.00 5/13 8:13 2834.25 9.8%
Trade id #123627000
Max drawdown($8,363)
Time5/13/19 8:13
Quant open0
Worst price2834.25
Drawdown as % of equity-9.80%
($8,387)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
4/30/19 16:30 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2955.00 5/1 15:31 2936.75 2.91%
Trade id #123482748
Max drawdown($2,738)
Time5/1/19 15:31
Quant open0
Worst price2936.75
Drawdown as % of equity-2.91%
($2,762)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
4/29/19 9:45 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2947.75 4/29 21:04 2936.75 1.74%
Trade id #123462503
Max drawdown($1,650)
Time4/29/19 21:04
Quant open0
Worst price2936.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.74%
($1,674)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
4/23/19 8:07 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2916.00 4/25 6:33 2934.83 0.61%
Trade id #123398053
Max drawdown($562)
Time4/23/19 9:33
Quant open3
Worst price2912.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
$2,801
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
4/2/19 20:47 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2874.25 4/17 14:13 2907.83 0.9%
Trade id #123176934
Max drawdown($787)
Time4/3/19 15:22
Quant open3
Worst price2869.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.90%
$5,014
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
3/21/19 9:58 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2838.00 3/22 11:37 2821.50 2.79%
Trade id #123012257
Max drawdown($2,475)
Time3/22/19 11:37
Quant open0
Worst price2821.50
Drawdown as % of equity-2.79%
($2,499)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
3/21/19 9:38 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 2830.00 3/21 9:58 2837.00 1.15%
Trade id #123011694
Max drawdown($1,050)
Time3/21/19 9:58
Quant open0
Worst price2837.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.15%
($1,074)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
3/13/19 8:02 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2805.75 3/20 10:23 2836.00 0.56%
Trade id #122890647
Max drawdown($487)
Time3/13/19 8:59
Quant open3
Worst price2802.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.56%
$4,514
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
3/12/19 16:01 @ESM9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 2796.50 3/13 8:00 2805.00 1.46%
Trade id #122884410
Max drawdown($1,275)
Time3/13/19 8:00
Quant open0
Worst price2805.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.46%
($1,299)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
3/11/19 1:05 @ESH9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 2749.00 3/12 16:00 2791.75 8.46%
Trade id #122857478
Max drawdown($7,387)
Time3/12/19 14:20
Quant open-3
Worst price2798.25
Drawdown as % of equity-8.46%
($6,437)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
2/27/19 14:15 @ESH9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2794.50 3/4 11:43 2786.50 2.02%
Trade id #122720155
Max drawdown($1,912)
Time2/28/19 2:04
Quant open3
Worst price2781.75
Drawdown as % of equity-2.02%
($1,224)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
2/27/19 10:12 @ESH9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 2778.50 2/27 13:15 2793.50 2.33%
Trade id #122713804
Max drawdown($2,250)
Time2/27/19 13:15
Quant open0
Worst price2793.50
Drawdown as % of equity-2.33%
($2,274)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
2/22/19 10:53 @ESH9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2789.00 2/25 20:30 2788.00 1.19%
Trade id #122643039
Max drawdown($1,162)
Time2/22/19 14:42
Quant open3
Worst price2781.25
Drawdown as % of equity-1.19%
($174)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
2/11/19 21:39 @ESH9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2723.25 2/21 14:52 2770.17 0.49%
Trade id #122467859
Max drawdown($450)
Time2/12/19 0:43
Quant open3
Worst price2720.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.49%
$7,014
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
2/7/19 6:25 @ESH9 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 3 2711.25 2/11 3:52 2716.00 1.18%
Trade id #122410785
Max drawdown($1,087)
Time2/7/19 10:31
Quant open-3
Worst price2718.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.18%
($737)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00
1/30/19 12:16 @ESH9 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 3 2666.00 2/7 5:15 2720.00 2%
Trade id #122271915
Max drawdown($1,650)
Time1/30/19 14:01
Quant open3
Worst price2655.00
Drawdown as % of equity-2.00%
$8,076
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $24.00

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    7/11/2018
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    431.16
  • Age
    14 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    58
  • # Profitable
    18
  • % Profitable
    31.00%
  • Avg trade duration
    4.0 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    22.16%
  • drawdown period
    Nov 14, 2018 - Nov 26, 2018
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    103.6%
  • Avg win
    $8,911
  • Avg loss
    $2,326
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $116,140
  • Margin Used
    $24,712
  • Buying Power
    $92,803
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.72:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.79
  • Sortino Ratio
    3.37
  • Calmar Ratio
    6.281
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.03030
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    103.6%
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    109.6%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    33.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    8.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    1.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    830
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    965
  • C2 Score
    955
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $2,326
  • Avg Win
    $9,064
  • # Winners
    18
  • # Losers
    40
  • % Winners
    31.0%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    5703.82
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    95.06
  • Avg Trade Length
    4.0 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    4
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    5.19
  • Daily leverage (max)
    7.99
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.21
  • Beta
    0.07
  • Treynor Index
    2.98
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    1.764
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.110
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.123
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.573
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.98490
  • SD
    0.50353
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.95599
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.83069
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    2.03586
  • p
    0.24666
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.11435
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.95750
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.18980
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.85118
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    6.04390
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.67108
  • Upside part of mean
    1.25006
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.26516
  • Upside SD
    0.53696
  • Downside SD
    0.16296
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.02792
  • Mean of criterion
    0.98490
  • SD of predictor
    0.12319
  • SD of criterion
    0.50353
  • Covariance
    -0.01140
  • r
    -0.18380
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.75129
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.00588
  • Mean Square Error
    0.26725
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.62015
  • p(b)
    0.72611
  • t(a)
    2.02052
  • p(a)
    0.03418
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.41771
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.91513
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.08984
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.10160
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.31094
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.00588
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.84714
  • SD
    0.45708
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.85337
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.73465
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    1.92905
  • p
    0.25674
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.20056
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.84110
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.27223
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.74153
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.93544
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.55945
  • Upside part of mean
    1.12589
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.27875
  • Upside SD
    0.47243
  • Downside SD
    0.17164
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.02083
  • Mean of criterion
    0.84714
  • SD of predictor
    0.12332
  • SD of criterion
    0.45708
  • Covariance
    -0.00980
  • r
    -0.17394
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.64470
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.86057
  • Mean Square Error
    0.22102
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.58581
  • p(b)
    0.71508
  • t(a)
    1.90280
  • p(a)
    0.04178
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.06697
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.77757
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.13486
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.85600
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.31400
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.86057
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.13622
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.18160
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02888
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06711
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.88617
  • Quartile 1
    1.00868
  • Median
    1.05484
  • Quartile 3
    1.16567
  • Maximum
    1.38337
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.93210
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.05049
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.11697
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.28882
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.15699
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.58916
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.16428
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.16566
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.10108
  • Quartile 1
    0.10873
  • Median
    0.11638
  • Quartile 3
    0.12402
  • Maximum
    0.13167
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.10108
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.13167
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01529
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    1.45889
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.39899
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    10.62500
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    10.62500
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    7.70378
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.81122
  • SD
    0.37407
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.16864
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.16322
  • df
    300.00000
  • t
    2.32445
  • p
    0.01038
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.33010
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.00365
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.32646
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.99997
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.01675
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    11.19270
  • Upside part of mean
    2.26045
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.44924
  • Upside SD
    0.31810
  • Downside SD
    0.20196
  • N nonnegative terms
    114.00000
  • N negative terms
    187.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    301.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.05482
  • Mean of criterion
    0.81122
  • SD of predictor
    0.15767
  • SD of criterion
    0.37407
  • Covariance
    0.00385
  • r
    0.06527
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.15486
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.80300
  • Mean Square Error
    0.13980
  • DF error
    299.00000
  • t(b)
    1.13106
  • p(b)
    0.12947
  • t(a)
    2.30066
  • p(a)
    0.01105
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.11458
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.42429
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.11610
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.48936
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    5.23848
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.80273
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.74182
  • SD
    0.36800
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.01583
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.01079
  • df
    300.00000
  • t
    2.16066
  • p
    0.01576
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.17851
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.84988
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.17514
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.84644
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    3.59570
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.72130
  • Upside part of mean
    2.21188
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.47006
  • Upside SD
    0.30742
  • Downside SD
    0.20631
  • N nonnegative terms
    114.00000
  • N negative terms
    187.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    301.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.04240
  • Mean of criterion
    0.74182
  • SD of predictor
    0.15785
  • SD of criterion
    0.36800
  • Covariance
    0.00411
  • r
    0.07071
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.16483
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.73483
  • Mean Square Error
    0.13520
  • DF error
    299.00000
  • t(b)
    1.22568
  • p(b)
    0.11064
  • t(a)
    2.14180
  • p(a)
    0.01651
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.09982
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.42949
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05965
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.41001
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    4.50041
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.73483
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03397
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04307
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01449
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02882
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    301.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92319
  • Quartile 1
    0.99242
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.01135
  • Maximum
    1.15246
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97949
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99885
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00304
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03175
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01893
  • Number outliers low
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.02326
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.94521
  • Number of outliers high
    18.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05980
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.06505
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.16203
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01927
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02913
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.23699
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01823
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02863
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00493
  • Quartile 1
    0.01230
  • Median
    0.03200
  • Quartile 3
    0.10295
  • Maximum
    0.18456
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00855
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02851
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.07641
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.16515
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.09065
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -6.69551
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.15805
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.15805
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -1.97424
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.20790
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.21021
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    1.23714
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.15918
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    6.28061
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    7.01889
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    26.91160
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.51424
  • SD
    0.30999
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.65890
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.64931
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.17302
  • p
    0.44883
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.12338
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.43488
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.12974
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.42835
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.85307
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.49176
  • Upside part of mean
    1.71081
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.19657
  • Upside SD
    0.25275
  • Downside SD
    0.18024
  • N nonnegative terms
    43.00000
  • N negative terms
    88.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.16565
  • Mean of criterion
    0.51424
  • SD of predictor
    0.13808
  • SD of criterion
    0.30999
  • Covariance
    0.00357
  • r
    0.08331
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.18702
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.48326
  • Mean Square Error
    0.09617
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.94949
  • p(b)
    0.44703
  • t(a)
    1.09889
  • p(a)
    0.43879
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.20269
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.57674
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.38684
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.35336
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.74959
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.48326
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.46649
  • SD
    0.30798
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.51467
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.50591
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.07103
  • p
    0.45324
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.26603
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.28968
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.27193
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.28375
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.52648
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.09717
  • Upside part of mean
    1.67970
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.21321
  • Upside SD
    0.24671
  • Downside SD
    0.18464
  • N nonnegative terms
    43.00000
  • N negative terms
    88.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15608
  • Mean of criterion
    0.46649
  • SD of predictor
    0.13856
  • SD of criterion
    0.30798
  • Covariance
    0.00383
  • r
    0.08984
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.19970
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.43532
  • Mean Square Error
    0.09482
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    1.02459
  • p(b)
    0.44288
  • t(a)
    0.99723
  • p(a)
    0.44439
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.18593
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.58532
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.42837
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.29901
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.33598
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.43532
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02909
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03675
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01252
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02539
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92319
  • Quartile 1
    0.99523
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00569
  • Maximum
    1.07113
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98337
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99879
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00095
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02514
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01046
  • Number outliers low
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05344
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.96242
  • Number of outliers high
    14.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10687
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.04194
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.24693
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01456
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02430
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.41375
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01551
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03087
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00493
  • Quartile 1
    0.00878
  • Median
    0.04796
  • Quartile 3
    0.07869
  • Maximum
    0.14490
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00641
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01873
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.06907
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.12392
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06991
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.56087
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.63951
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    4.41353
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    5.16048
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    17.40160

Strategy Description

Please read carefully and speak with your financial adviser before subscribing.


https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTy2cOZabbp9ziT1PRHrtHDyjB6H4sK1nLQxzgz3a38DDyo5r8oaqeIFqkWHjVC9td7q3frq7KyUu4C/pub

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2018-07-11
Suggested Minimum Capital
$100,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 4.5%
Rank # 
#27
# Trades
58
# Profitable
18
% Profitable
31.0%
Correlation S&P500
0.030
Sharpe Ratio
1.79
Sortino Ratio
3.37
Beta
0.07
Alpha
0.21
Leverage
5.19 Average
7.99 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.